2007-09-26

Future of the humankind

Wether the humankind is credited a valuation for each of his historical periode or only his be or not be is considered it would be necessary for making decision regarding his preservation to considere the risk of extenction in course of time.
There could be for example the alternative of a higher risk first but a lower later or to take a punctual high risk rather than a lower risk above a long time.
If it is assumed that their lasting two years is twice better than one year or that one year in his twice better periode is wort two years in others the best decision is the one with the greatest value w from the time t0 of the decision to a time t tending to infinite.

w(t0,t)=v(t0)*p(t0)+v(t1)*p(t0)*p(t1)+..+v(t)*p(t0)*..*p(t)

t0 goes to t by step of one year. p(t) is the chance of surviving in the year t if the humankind make it up to this time. p(t0)*..*p(t) is the chance to surviving in the time span from the year t0 to inclusively the year t. v(t) represent the valuability in the year t and can be set to 1 if only the be or not be is considered.